Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition- The process of a change in society’s populations from a condition of high crude birth rate, and death rates and low rates of natural increaser to a condition of low crude birth rate and death rates, low natural increase, and a higher total population.

Terms
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - The total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in a society.
Crude Death Rate (CDR) - total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people in a society.
Natural Increase Rate (NIR) (also referred to as the Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) and Natural increase Rate (NIR) - Percent growth of a population in a year, computed as CBR minus CDR.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - the average number of children a woman will have in her child bearing years, highlighted as being higher in stage 2 countries of the demographic transition model.
Zero population growth- Decline of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to the point where the natural increase rate equals zero.
Replacement Rate- The degree to which a population is replacing itself, based on the ratio of the number of female babies to the number of women of childbearing age.
Agricultural revolution- The time when humans first domesticate plants and animals and no longer relied on hunting and gathering techniques. This allowed human to create settlements, and began the specialization of labor.
Industrial revolution- A series of improvements in industrial technologies that transformed the process of manufacturing goods. 1750.
Medical revolution- Improvements and diffusion of medical technology from Europe and North America to less developed countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

Stage 1- Low Growth // High Stationary Phase

Low amounts of growth due to the way food was gathered as hunter gatherers.
High crude death rates and high crude birthrates
NIR was stagnant and roughly zero.
Famines were a main reason for death
High rate infant mortality (death before age 1 per 1,000 of a population)
Hunter Gather stage- which was hunting and gathering food, before the first agricultural revolution for sustenance.
First Agri Rev occurs in this stage but no dramatic increase in population
No country exists in this current stage of demographic transition.

Stage 2- High Growth // Early Expanding Phase

High NIR
Increases in medicine and technologies facilitated growth.
Median ages around the late teens.
Countries entered stage 2 after 1750 as a result of the industrial revolution, and the late twentieth century medical revolution.
Also corresponds with second agricultural revolution
Crude Birth Rate remains high.
Crude Death Rate declines
Largest growth stage

The problem of stage two is that it can provide a demographic trap, which occurs when the population grows too quickly for the country to support, and this results in developmental problems within the country (ex. Population increases to the point where 3 schools are needed, only one opens)

Reasons for the high growth include a rural lifestyle, fear of children dying (high IMR), male dominated societies, lack of opportunities (economic and education)

Example of stage two countries would exist in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Stage 3- Moderate Growth // Late Expanding Phase

Moderate growth due to a lowering of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), a result of increased education levels, and opportunities for women.
Crude Death rate continues to decline and stabilize
Crude Birth Rate declines sharply - that marks this phase from 2.
Median age would be in the mid to late 20s
NIR is still high, promoting population growth, but there is much less significant growth than in stage two.
Population continues to increase as a result of higher CBR than CDR.
Asia takes advantage of the 3rd agri rev helping them maintain their population

People now have more opportunities, are increasingly growing up in an urban lifestyle and the lowering of the CDR decreases fears of children dying before adulthood

States that reach this stage tend to continue towards development

Examples of stage 3 are prevalent in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico) and Asia

Stage 4- Low Growth

Low Growth due to a decline in Total Fertility Rate
Crude Birth Rate is low
Crude Death Rate is low
Median ages would be in the 30s.
CBR in stage four countries decline to the point where it equals the crude death rate, and the natural increase rate equals zero.
Countries approach Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
Countries in many cases (Europe) have a negative natural increase rates, as they are below replacement rate.

Alternative lifestyles are more accepted here. For example, LATs, YUPPIES, and DINKs as well as homosexuality.

People have less children because:

• The countries have people that have lived for a generation or more in an urban environment which does not go along with having lots of kids like an agricultural environment
• Women with as many opportunities as men have fewer children as they have more economic and educational opportunities
• Folk culture gender roles are diminishing
• Children will likely survive so there is no fear that you need to have many children in case of loss due to disease etc

Also in stage 4, jobs are increasingly post-industrial and third sector.

Examples of stage 4 would include the United States (only stage 4 country above replacement rate), Europe, Australia, and Japan.

Migration Patterns - The Migration Transition
People within stage 2 and 3 countries are increasingly moving to the cities. Stage 2 countries are the most rapidly urbanizing because they are the most rural and have the highest possibility of people moving to the cities. This is the largest migration path currently happening in the world today.

People from stage 2 and 3 countries are moving to the MDCs of stage 4 because those countries offer opportunities that their crowded countries cannot.

Stage 4 countries have migration patterns that are primarily internal and usually have people going from one urban area to another. People are highly mobile within their countries. These countries are also source areas for migrants from stage 2 and 3

Note: The largest reason for migration is economic. People in the LDCs move to the MDCs in search of jobs and they also move from rural to urban in search of jobs.

malthunsian population growth

Vocabulary: 
Carrying Capacity
Overpopulation
Resource Crisis

Malthus has become widely known for his theories concerning population, and its increase or decrease in response to various factors.

• The six editions of his An Essay on the Principle of Population, published from 1798 to 1826, observed that sooner or later population gets checked by famine, disease, and widespread mortality.
• The Malthusian theory suggests a relationship between the growth of population and food. Thomas Malthus argued that population growth is geometric (1→2→4→8), and agricultural growth is arithmetic (1→2→3→4); therefore, population growth will increase at such a rate that eventually there will not be enough food for the population.

According to Malthus,

• Population tended to increase at a geometric rate (1,2,4,8,16...) while food supply would only increase at a arithmetic rate (1,2,3,4,5...).
• Checks would keep the population down. Positive checks like war, disease, poverty and lack of food would keep population down.
• Malthus saw the tension between population and resources as a major source of misery in humanity
• He also believed in preventative checks like educating the lower classes, higher pay for the lower classes and the postponement of marriage. He believed all people wanted to have many children but that these measures would delay the number of children.
• He believed hunger and sex were major desires for people.
• His views hold better with stage 2 countries.

Critics of Malthus

• Environmental possibilism teaches us that though our environment may limit our abilities it does not determine them.
• Larger populations could stimulate economic growth
• More people are consumers and more people are around to be innovators
• Critics state that the world would be worse off if the population was only a billion because too few people can slow or reverse economic growth
• Some countries, and this is a little nutty, see population growth as power

Malthus and Reality

• In reality food production has kept up with population growth. Since 1950, food production rates have been higher than the NIR of the world. (so far that is)
• Malthus may have been too pessimistic about population growth. He thought we would have 10 billion people right now.
• The world's NIR slowed from 1990 to 2000 (fom 1.8 to 1.3% per year)
• LDCs went from 2.1 to 1.6 and MDCs from .5 to .1
• In many ways development has helped to slow the NIR (we will talk about microloans in Bangladesh as an example later)

Neo_Malthusians
Used as a label for those who are concerned that overpopulation may increase resource depletion or environmental degradation to a degree that is not sustainable with the potential of ecological collapse or other hazards.

They argue that 2 factors make things more frightening today.

1. medical technology and advancements have made population growth possible all over the world but not necessarily the development that lowers population (that has not gone everywhere). In parts of Africa, stage 2 countries have higher population growth than economic growth ensuring they stay stage 2 countries.
2. population growth can outstrip resources in general (like oil) not just food supply. Energy and water may be future issues.

Energy as an Example for Neo-Malthusians
Resources, such as sources of energy for food, and energy consumption for population. Since energy consumption is increasing much faster than population, and most energy comes from non-renewable sources, the catastrophe appears more imminent, though perhaps not as certain, than when considering food and population continue to behave in a manner contradicting Malthus's assumptions.

Rostow's Stages of Development

Rostow's Stages of Development
Walt Whitman Rostow (1916- 2003) 
Rostow's model is descendent from the liberal school of economics, emphasizing the efficacy of modern concepts of free trade and the ideas of Adam Smith. It also denies Friedrich List’s argument that countries reliant on exporting raw materials may get “locked in”, and be unable to diversify, in that Rostow’s model states that countries may need to depend on a few raw material exports to finance the development of manufacturing sectors which are not yet of superior competitiveness in the early stages of take-off. In that way, Rostow’s model does not deny John Maynard Keynes in that it allows for a degree of government control over domestic development not generally accepted by some ardent free trade advocates. Although empirical at times, Rostow is hardly free of normative discourse. As a basic assumption, Rostow believes that countries want to modernize as he describes modernization, and that society will assent to the materialistic norms of economic growth.



Stages
Traditional Societies
Traditional societies are marked by their pre-Newtonian understanding and use of technology. These are societies which have pre-scientific understandings of gadgets, and believe that gods or spirits facilitate the procurement of goods, rather than man and his own ingenuity. The norms of economic growth are completely absent from these societies.
The economy is dominated by subsistence activity where output is consumed by producers rather than traded. Any trade is carried out by barter where goods are exchanged directly for other goods. Agriculture is the most important industry and production is labor intensive using only limited quantities of capital. Resource allocation is determined very much by traditional methods of production.
Preconditions to Take-off
The preconditions to take-off are, to Rostow, that the society begins committing itself to secular education, that it enables a degree of capital mobilization, especially through the establishment of banks and currency, that an entrepreneurial class forms, and that the secular concept of manufacturing develops, with only a few sectors developing at this point. This leads to a take-off in ten to fifty years. At this stage, there is a limited production function, and therefore a limited output. There are limited economic techniques available and these restrictions create a limit to what can be produced.
Increased specialization generates surpluses for trading. There is an emergence of a transport infrastructure to support trade. As incomes, savings and investment grow entrepreneurs emerge. External trade also occurs concentrating on primary products.
Take-off
Take-off then occurs when sector led growth becomes common and society is driven more by economic processes than traditions. At this point, the norms of economic growth are well established. In discussing the take-off, Rostow is a noted early adopter of the term “transition”, which is to describe the passage of a traditional to a modern economy. After take-off, a country will take as long as fifty to one hundred years to reach maturity. Globally, this stage occurred during the Industrial Revolution.
Industrialization increases, with workers switching from the agricultural sector to the manufacturing sector. Growth is concentrated in a few regions of the country and in one or two manufacturing industries. The level of investment reaches over 10% of GNP.
The economic transitions are accompanied by the evolution of new political and social institutions that support the industrialization. The growth is self-sustaining as investment leads to increasing incomes in turn generating more savings to finance further investment.
Drive to Maturity
The drive to maturity refers to the need for the economy itself to diversify. The sectors of the economy which lead initially begin to level off, while other sectors begin to take off. This diversity leads to greatly reduced rates of poverty and rising standards of living, as the society no longer needs to sacrifice its comfort in order to strengthen certain sectors.
The economy is diversifying into new areas. Technological innovation is providing a diverse range of investment opportunities. The economy is producing a wide range of goods and services and there is less reliance on imports.
Age of High Mass Consumption
The age of high mass consumption refers to the period of contemporary comfort afforded many western nations, wherein consumers concentrate on durable goods, and hardly remember the subsistence concerns of previous stages. In the age of high mass consumption, a society is able to choose between concentrating on military and security issues, on equality and welfare issues, or on developing great luxuries for its upper class. Each country in this position chooses its own balance between these three goals.
Of particular note is the fact that Rostow's "Age of High Mass Consumption" dovetails with (occurring before) Daniel Bell's hypothesized "Post-Industrial Society." The Bell and Rostovian models collectively suggest that economic maturation inevitably brings on job-growth which can be followed by wage escalation in the secondary economic sector (manufacturing), which is then followed by dramatic growth in the tertiary economic sector (commerce and services). In the Bell model, the tertiary economic sector rises to predominance, encompassing perhaps 65 to 75 percent of the employment in a given economy. Maturation can then bring-on deindustrialization as manufacturers reorient to cheaper labor markets, and deindustrialization can, in turn, destabilize the tertiary sector.

According to Rostow, development requires substantial investment in capital. For the economies of LDCs to grow, the right conditions for such investment would have to be created. If aid is given or foreign direct investment occurs at stage 3 the economy needs to have reached stage 2. If the stage 2 has been reached then injections of investment may lead to rapid growth.

Limitations
Many development economists argue that Rostows's model was developed with Western cultures in mind and not applicable to LDCs. It addition its generalized nature makes it somewhat limited. It does not set down the detailed nature of the pre-conditions for growth. In reality, policy makers are unable to clearly identify stages as they merge together. Thus as a predictive model it is not very helpful. Perhaps its main use is to highlight the need for investment. Like many of the other models of economic developments it is essentially a growth model and does not address the issue of development in the wider context.

Criticism of the Model

1. Rostow is 'historical in the sense that the end result is known in the outset and is derived from the historical geography of developed society.
2. Rostow is mechanical in the sense the underlying motor of change is not disclosed and therefore the stages become little more than a classificatory system based on data from developed country.
3. His model is based on American and European history and aspiring to American norm of high mass consumption.
4. His model represents a “non-communist manifesto” or we can say a “capitalist manifesto”.

Rostow's thesis is biased towards a western model of modernization, but at the time of Rostow the world's only mature economies were in the west, and no controlled economies were in the "era of high mass consumption." The model de-emphasizes differences between sectors in capitalistic vs. communistic societies, but seems to innately recognize that modernization can be achieved in different ways in different types of economies.
The most disabling assumption that Rostow is accused of is trying to fit economic progress into a linear system. This charge is correct in that many countries make false starts, reach a degree of transition and then slip back, or as is the case in contemporary Russia, slip back from high mass consumption (or almost) to a country in transition. On the other hand, Rostow’s analysis seems to emphasize success because it is trying to explain success. To Rostow, if a country can be a disciplined, uncorrupt investor in itself, can establish certain norms into its society and polity, and can identify sectors where it has some sort of advantage, it can enter into transition and eventually reach modernity. Rostow would point to a failure in one of these conditions as a cause for non-linearity.
Another problem that Rostow’s work has is that it considers mostly large countries: countries with a large population (Japan), with natural resources available at just the right time in its history (Coal in Northern European countries), or with a large land mass (Argentina). He has little to say and indeed offers little hope for small countries, such as Rwanda, which do not have such advantages. Neo-liberal economic theory to Rostow, and many others, does offer hope to much of the world that economic maturity is coming and the age of high mass consumption is nigh. But that does leave a sort of 'grim meathook future' for the outliers, which do not have the resources, political will, or external backing to become competitive.

Self-sufficiency

China, India and most African and Eastern European countries adopted this strategy at one time. The idea is to protect local, fledgling businesses from large, international competition. This also helps to make your country independent of the MDCs and not at the whim of TNCs.

lements of self-sufficiency approach - Import limitation

• Higher taxes on imported goods (tariffs)
• Set quotas on imports
• Import-license requirements

India as an Example
India once did all of these and even made it illegal to exchange their money on currency exchanges.

The government wanted businesses to produce for India only (local businesses that is). If private companies could not make a profit, the government subsidized them.

Problems with Self-sufficiency Approach:

• Inefficiency- without competition, companies lagged behind the rest of the world and counted on the government to make a profit. Meanwhile the government share of the costs kept going up.
• Large bureaucracy – complex admin systems that were corrupt, easily bribed. Creation of a black market to get around all of the government issues.

Rank Size verus Primate City

Rank Size verus Primate City

 

Rank-Size Rule
In 1949, George Zipf devised his theory of rank-size rule to explain the size cities in a country. He explained that the second and subsequently smaller cities should represent a proportion of the largest city. For example, if the largest city in a country contained one million citizens, Zipf stated that the second city would contain one-half as many as the first, or 500,000. The third would contain one-third or 333,333; the fourth would be home to one-quarter or 250,000, and so on, with the rank of the city representing the denominator in the fraction. For instance, in the United States, although its largest city, New York City, has more than twice the population of second-place Los Angeles, the two cities' metropolitan areas, also the two largest in the country, are much closer in population. In metropolitan-area population, New York City is only 1.3 times larger than Los Angeles.

The proportion of small towns to large cities is called the rank size rule, and it applies both to regions and to the world as a whole. The rank size rule states that there is a specific relationship between relative abundance of settlements of different sizes, and that the smallest settlements should always be the most abundant. More specifically the rank size rule states that population of any given town should be inversely proportional to its rank in the country’s or world’s hierarchy of cities. Thus the second largest city should be half the population of the largest city within a certain country. Many countries, especially in the developed world, display this kind of pattern in terms of their cities populations. The rank size rule has a real impact on the quality of life and the standard of living for a country’s inhabitants. A regular hierarchy indicates that the society in sufficiently wealthy and may even be participating in the global market as a means to gain fame as a world power MDC. The rank size rule also justify that the society is sufficiently wealthy to justify the provisions of goods and services to consumers throughout the country which in turn may mean an industrializing MDC service sector economy in present within the country. However, in LDC’s, the rank size rule tends to fail at other levels of hierarchy and development as well. The absence of the rank size distribution in a LDC shows that there is not wealth in the society to pay for a full variety of services, possibly due to uneven development.

Rank-Size rule could mean that you have an LDC because there is an abundance of settlements which indicates that any people have access to the services that cities offer.
-definitely means this when present in an MDC

VS.

Primate City
A primate city is the leading city in its country or region, disproportionately larger than any others in the urban hierarchy. A 'primate city distribution' has one very large city with many much smaller cities and towns, and no intermediate-sized urban centers, in contrast to the linear 'rank-size distribution'. The 'law of the primate city' was first proposed by the geographer Mark Jefferson in 1939. He defines a primate city as being "at least twice as large as the next largest city and more than twice as significant." Basically it should be more than twice as large than the next city The size and dominance of a primate city acts as a pull factor and ensures its continuing dominance. A primate city is a city that dominates the entire urban system of a nation. The population of a primate city is usually at least three times the size of the second largest city, yet in the case of the Philippines and numerous other nations, the gap is much larger. A primate city is not only large but also economically dominant and the cultural center for national identity. It controls media, creates jobs, circulates currency and sets trends. The influence of a primate city reverberates throughout the entire country. Primate cities in the developing world are largely a relic of their colonial history when European colonizers concentrated all economic, transportation, and trade actively in one place, leaving the infrastructure in place after decolonization. Many LDC’s tend to follow the primate city rule which though for the economy of one part of the city may be good but the economy of the other part of the city may be bad as a result of , uneven development due to the primate city rule (in some cases). Not all countries have primate cities, but in those that do, the rest of the country depends on it for cultural, economic, political, and major transportation needs. On the other hand the primate city depends on the rest of the country as paying consumers of the cultural, economic, political and other services produced in the city. The presence of a primate city in a country may indicate an imbalance in development — usually a progressive core, and a lagging periphery, on which the city depends for labor and other resources. However, the urban structure is not directly dependent on a country's level of economic development. Similarly, the United Kingdom has London as its primate city (7 million) while the second largest city, Birmingham, is home to a mere one million people.

Factors Encouraging Primacy

• Favorable initial advantages for site
• Advantages maintained and enhanced
• Magnetic attraction for businesses, services and people (cumulative effect)
• Disproportionate growth increases attractiveness
• Has a parasitic effect, sucking wealth, natural and human resources.
• They attract overseas investment and benefits that will eventually benefit the whole country

The degree of primacy refers to the dominance of the largest city over the rest of the country. Most LDCs (Less Developed Countries) have a high degree of primacy while most MDCs (More Developed Countries) have a low degree of primacy.

Factors that affect high primacy include

• Having an underdeveloped economy
• Having an agriculturally dominant economy
• A rapidly expanding population
• A recent colonial history

Paris (9.6 million) is definitely the focus of France while Marseilles has a population of 1.3 million. But is an example of how an MDC can have a primate city but not be an LDC which is an exception to the rule.

Models to know

Models to Know

Population

Malthus - Malthusian Theory: In 1798, British economist Thomas Malthus published An Essay on the Principles of Population. In this essay, he predicted that world population would grow faster than world food supply, with food supply growing linearly and population growing exponentially. Malthus was ultimately proven incorrect. He did not foresee the importation of food, nor the exponential growth of food production due to mechanization, bioengineered seeds, fertilizers, etc. that have greatly increased yields. People and countries go hungry today due to the unequal distribution of food, but not due to an overall shortage of food.


Demographic Transition: Great Britain provides the model for the 4 stages in the Demographic Transition. Why countries move from one stage to another has varied over time. Model may not be applicable to all countries but seems to accompany economic development. Transition occurs between Stages 2 and 3, when death rates fall and then birth rates fall, leading to a transition from high population growth to low population growth.

• Stage 1: High Birth Rate, High Death Rate with little overall population growth (many births but also many deaths due to such things as epidemics, plagues, famines, wars)
• Stage 2: High Birth Rate, Declining Death Rate lead to population explosion (death rates decline due to increased food supply, better sanitation, modern medicine, vaccinations, etc.)
• Stage 3: Declining BIrth Rate, Low Death Rate lead to continuing population increase (large families less desirable due to industrialization, more opportunities for women, delayed marriage and childbearing, lower infant mortality rates, availability of birth control, etc.)
• Stage 4: Low Birth Rate, Low Death Rate lead to little overall population growth (birth rates lowest in countries where women are most educated and most involved in labor force)

Ravenstein - Laws of Migration: Over 100 years ago, British demographer Ernst Ravenstein studied internal migration in England and proposed 5 Laws of Migration:

• Every migration flow generates a return or counter migration
• The majority of migrants move a short distance
• Migrants who move longer distances tend to choose big city destinations
• Urban residents are less migratory than rural residents
• Young adults are more likely to make international moves than families

Gravity Model: The Gravity Model as applied to geography, attempts to predict the amount of spatial interaction (movement of people, goods, ideas, etc.) between two locations. More populated places attract people, goods, ideas, etc. more than less populated places, and places that are closer together have more spatial interaction than places that are distant from each other. Therefore, according to the model, the "pull" between two locations can be calculated by multiplying the population of Location A by the population of Location B and then dividing the product by the distance between the two locations squared.









Culture

Sauer - Cultural Landscape: In 1927 Berkeley professor Carl Sauer wrote an article entitled "Recent Developments in Cultural Geography" in which he proposed that cultural landscapes are "the forms superimposed on the physical landscape" by human activity. Human geographers are especially interested in the cultural landscape - the visible imprint of human activity on the face of the Earth. How do we know that people, and certain kinds of people, have lived in certain places? Because of the cultural landscapes that they create. Cultural landscapes not only reflect the "style" of a group of people, but also their values.

Political

Ratzel - Organic State Theory: In the 1800's, German professor Friedrich Ratzel proposed that the state (meaning country) is like a living breathing organism. It has a life span extending from birth until death, and to sustain itself (stay alive), it needs to acquire more territory and control more people. In the 1930's, Ratzel's theories were used to justify the territorial expansion of the Nazis.

MacKinder - Heartland Theory: In the early 1900s, British geographer Halford Mackinder published an article entitled "The Geographical Pivot of History". His contemporaries thought a sea-based power would rule the world but he thought a land-based power would rule the world. To Mackinder, the critical landmass (or pivot area) was resource rich Eurasia. Later he renamed this pivot area the "heartland". After World War II, MacKinder's ideas influenced the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a military alliance of the U.S., Canada and Western Europe designed to contain the Soviet Union.

• Who rules Eastern Europe commands the Heartland
• Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island
• Who rules the World Island commands the World

Spykman - Rimland Theory: In 1942, Dutch geographer Nicholas Spykman proposed a theory which countered Mackinder's Heartland Theory. Spykman stated that Eurasia's Rimland, the coastal areas or buffer zone, is the key to controlling the World Island, not the heartland.


Wallerstein - World Systems Theory: Sociologist Emmanuel Wallerstein proposed 3 basic tenets of World Systems Theory:

• The world economy has one market and a global division of labor
• Although the world has multiple states (countries), almost everything takes place within the context of the world economy.
• The world economy has a 3 tier structure: core, periphery and semi-periphery

The world economy is capitalist, based upon the exchange of goods and services for profit. To maximize profit, producers seek the cheapest labor, wherever it may be found. Producers commodify everything, i.e. make it into something that can be bought and sold ... new products, new versions of old products ... and promote sales through aggressive marketing and advertising. Colonialism set up a system in which countries may be politically independent but not economically independent. The core and periphery are not just places, but also what takes place in those places. Core countries have higher levels of education and technology and the economic activities that take place there generate more wealth (typically secondary and tertiary type activities). Periphery countries have lower levels of education and technology and the economic activities that take place there generate less wealth (typically primary type activities: farming, fishing, mining, ranching, etc.). The core uses the periphery to achieve its economic goals. The semi-periphery serves as a buffer between the core and periphery - countries that are developing economically but are not yet part of the core.



Agriculture

von Thunen - Agricultural Land Use Model: In the 1800s, Johann Heinrich von Thunen observed and mapped the pattern of agricultural land use in Germany. He noticed that each town (market center) was surrounded by rings within which certain crops or agricultural products were produced. von Thunen based his model upon three assumptions:

• Terrain was flat
• Soils and other environmental conditions were consistent
• There were no barriers for transportation to market

Closest to town, farmers would produce very perishable goods such as dairy products and fresh produce. In his time, German towns were surrounded by a forest ring that was used to supply wood for building and fuel. In the next ring, less perishable and more bulky crops like wheat, corn and potatoes were grown. Furthest out, animals were raised.

von Thunen concluded that the rings were based on transportation costs. The goods that were most expensive to transport (and most perishable) would be produced closest to town (the market), and the goods that were least expensive to transport would be produced furthest from town.



Economic

Rostow - Ladder of Development or Modernization Model: Walt Rostow's model from the 1960's assumes that all countries follow a similar path to economic development. Major criticism of this model is that it provides no domestic or international context for development.

• Stage 1: Traditional - Subsistence agriculture, most of labor force in primary sector, people not open to change
• Stage 2: Preconditions for Take-off - Progressive leadership (government) leads people toward more flexibility, openness and economic diversification
• Stage 3: Take-off - Country experiences something like an Industrial Revolution, urbanization, advances in technology and mass production, more people employed in secondary sector
• Stage 4: Drive to Maturity - Technologies diffuse, specialization occurs, international trade expands, modernization evident, population growth slows, more people employed in secondary and tertiary sector
• Stage 5: High Mass Consumption - High income, widespread production of goods and services, most of labor force in tertiary sector

Weber - Least Cost Theory: German geographer Alfred Weber developed a model for the location of manufacturing. He suggested that industries are located where owners can minimize transportation and labor costs and agglomerate (cluster with other similar or interdependent businesses). Transportation costs are most important, but one has to consider how each balances the other. For example, a site with higher transportation costs but cheaper labor might be the most profitable location overall.

Hotelling - Locational Interdependence Theory: Harold Hotelling suggested that the location of an industry can not be understood without considering the location of its competition. Ice cream vendors on a beach may maximize profits by locating right next to each other rather than at opposite ends of the beach. In that location, they are able to theoretically attract all potential ice cream customers.

Castells and Hall - Technopoles: Technopoles are areas purposely planned for high technology where agglomeration (clustering of similar industries) occurs. Examples of technopoles in the U.S. are Silicon Valley in California (home to Cisco, Adobe, HP, Intel, IBM, Netscape, etc.), the 128 Corridor outside Boston, MA (close to Harvard and MIT) and the Telecom Corridor of Plano-Richardson outside Dallas, TX. The location of technopoles is not related to raw materials or markets, but rather proximity to major transportation and communication networks. Globally, many technopoles are located on the edges of large cities near airports.

Urban

Bid-Rent Theory: the price and demand for real estate changes as the distance from the Central Business District (CBD) increases. Land users will complete with one another for land close to the CBD. The basis of this theory is the idea that the CBD offers the greatest accessibility to potential customers, thus the highest profit possibilities.


















Burgess - Urban Structure - Concentric Zone Model: Ernest Burgess based his city model on 1920's Chicago. In this model, the city grows out from the CBD in a ring pattern.




Borchert - Epochs or Stages of Evolution of American Metropolis (see class handout)

Christaller - Central Place Theory: In the 1930's German geographer Walter Christaller developed a model to predict how and where different sized settlements are distributed on the landscape which applies fairly well to Europe and North America. Christaller's assumptions:

• A flat surface with no physical barriers
• Uniform soil fertility
• Population and purchasing power evenly distributed
• A uniform transportation network to permit direct travel from one settlement to another
• A good or service could be sold in all directions out to a certain distance

1. Settlements come in different sizes with different functions (hamlet, village, town, city, megacity) and their distribution on the landscape is NOT random.
2. There are more small settlements than large settlements. Large settlements are further apart than small settlements and have more functions and higher order functions (i.e. the U of M, state government offices, Metrodome, corporate headquarters are located in Minneapolis-St. Paul ...)
3. Each settlement has a trade area or hinterland within which it has a monopoly on the sale of certain goods because of the concept of range. (You wouldn't typically drive to Minneapolis for a gallon of milk, but you would for a concert.)
4. Threshold is the minimum number of people needed to support a good or service, range is the maximum distance people will travel for a good or service.
5. Christaller illustrated trade areas around central places with hexagons to avoid gaps.

Harris and Ullman - Urban Structure - Multiple Nuclei Model: Harris and Ullman believed that neither the concentric zones nor the sector model reflected city structure in the mid 1900's. In their model there is not one single nucleus but rather several nuclei with their own focal points.


Hoyt - Urban Structure - Sector Model: Homer Hoyt's 1930's model focused on where the wealthy residents of a city live. Hoyt illustrated a city growing out from a central CBD along transportation corridors, with pie shaped sectors.

concentric zone model, sector model and multiple nuclei model

Concentric Zone Model

The Concentric Zone model is a model of the internal structure of cities in which social groups are spatially arranged in a series of rings. The Concentric Zone model was the first to explain the distribution of different social groups within urban areas. It was originally based off Chicago (although the model does not apply well to Chicago today). The model was created in 1923 by E.W. Burgess, Robert Park, and Roderick McKenzie. The idea behind this model is that the city grows outward from a central area in a series of rings. The size of the rings may vary, but the order always remains the same. This model suggests that the social structure extends outwards from the central business district, meaning that the lower classes live closer to the city center, while the upper classes live farther from the city center because they can afford the commute. Also, as you get further away from the city density decreases. The rent tends to increase as you get further away from the CBD and residents are more likely to rent near the center. As you get further away from the CBD it is more likely that you will find condominiums. Indianapolis is a city that can be applied to the concentric zone model today. That is because more people rent near the CBD than away from it. However, this model has its weaknesses. It does not take into account any physical barriers and it does not take into account gentrification- which may occur in these cities.

An important feature of this model is the positive correlation of socio-economic statuts of households with distance from the CBD — more affluent households were observed to live at greater distances from the central city. Burgess described the changing spatial patterns of residential areas as a process of "invasion" and "succession". As the city grew and developed over time, the CBD would exert pressure on the zone immediately surrounding it (the zone of transition). Outward expansion of the CBD would invade nearby residential neighborhoods causing them to expand outward. The process was thought to continue with each successive neighborhood moving further from the CBD. He suggested that inner-city housing was largely occupied by immigrants and households with low socio-economic status. As the city grew and the CBD expanded outward, lower status residents moved to adjacent neighborhoods, and more affluent residents moved further from the CBD.

Burgess's work is based on the bid rent curve. This states that the concentric circles are based on the amount that people will pay for the land. This value is based on the profits that are obtainable from maintaining a business on that land. The center of the town will have the highest number of customers so it is profitable for retail activities. Manufacturing will pay slightly less for the land as they are only interested in the accessibility for workers, 'goods in' and 'goods out'. Residential land use will take the surrounding land.

Problems with the Concentric Zone Model

The model has been challenged by many contemporary urban geographers. Firstly, the model does not work well with cities outside the United States, in particular with those developed under different historical contexts. Even in the United States, because of changes such as advancement in transportation and information technology and transformation in global economy, cities are no longer organized with clear "zones" (see: Los Angeles School of Urban Analysis).
• It assumes an isotropic plain - an even, unchanging landscape. Physical features
can interrupt the cycle
• Assumes transportation is the same everywhere and does not take into account better methods of
transportation
• It is based primarily on residences
• Assumes cities develop and are based on industry
• Assumes the condition of the land is the same everywhere
• Commuter villages defy the theory, being in the commuter zone but located far from the city
• Decentralization of shops, manufacturing industry, and entertainment in modern times thanks to
modern transportation systems
• Urban regeneration and gentrification - more expensive property can be found in 'low class'
housing areas
• Many new housing estates were built on the edges of cities in Britain
• It does not address local urban politics and forces of globalization
• The model does not work well for cities which are essentially federations of similar sized
towns, for example Stoke-on-Trent

The Different Rings of the Concentric Zone Model

1) Central Business District (CBD)- This area of the city is a non-residential area and it’s where businesses are. This area is called downtown in the U.S. and city center in Europe. This area has a developed transportation system to accommodate commuters coming into the CBD. Also, due to the high land cost in this area, a lot of sky scrapers are built in order to take full advantage of that land. Most government institutions, businesses, stadiums, and restaurants chose this area to build on due to its accessibility.
2) Zone of Transition- the zone of transition contains industry and has poorer-quality housing available. Immigrants, as well as single individuals, tend to live in this area in small dwelling units, frequently created by subdividing larger houses into apartments. Most people in this area rent.
3) Zone of the working class- This area contains modest older houses occupied by stable, working class families. A large percentage of the people in this area rent.
4) Zone of better residence- This zone contains newer and more spacious houses. Mostly families in the middle-class live in this zone. There are a lot of condominiums in this area and residents are less likely to rent.
5) Commuter’s Zone- This area is located beyond the build-up area of the city. Mostly upper class residents live in this area. This area is also known as the suburbs in the United States.

• Transportation costs and land costs are a big part of this theory (bid-rent curves)

sector model

Sector model- a model of the internal structure of cities in which social groups are arranged around a series of sectors, or wedges radiating out from the central business district (CBD) and centered on major transportation lines.

• Also known as the Hoyt Model. Developed in 1939 by land economist Homer Hoyt.
• He said that a city develops in a series of sectors, not rings.
• Different areas attract different activities by chance or by environmental factors.
• As the city grows, activities within it grow outward in a wedge shape from the CBD.

CBD- central business district, the area of a city where retail and office activities are clustered. It is also called the central activities district. In North America, it is called “downtown.” In Chicago, it would be the area closest to the lake, most notably Michigan Avenue.

Industry

• Industry follows rivers, canals, railroads, or roads
• Lower class workers work here. Paid little, bad working conditions.
• Produces goods or other domestic products for city

Low Class Residential
• Low income housing
• Near railroads that feed factories or
• Inhabitants tend to work in factories
• Live near industry to reduce transportation costs
• Pollution or poor environmental conditions due to industry (traffic, noise and pollution make it cheap)

Middle Class Residential
• More desirable area because it is further from industry and pollution
• Access to transportation lines for working people who work in the CBD, making transport easier
• Largest residential area

High Class Residential
• Housing on outermost edge
• Furthest away from industry
• Quiet, clean, less traffic
• Corridor or spine extending from CBD to edge has best housing.

Where it does and doesn’t apply (some weaknesses)
• Applies well to Chicago
• Low cost housing is near industry and transportation proving Hoyt’s model
• Theory based on 20th century and does not take into account cars which make commerce easier
• With cars, people can live anywhere and further from the city and still travel to the CBD using their car. Not only do high-class residents have cars, but also middle and lower class people may have cars.

BACKGROUND INFO
-theory of urban structure
-also known as Hoyt Model
-developed in 1939 by Homer Hoyt
-states that a city develops in sectors, not rings
-certain areas are more attractive for different activities because of an environmental factor or by mere chance.
-Hoyt modified the concentric zone model to account for major transportation routes
-according to this model most major cities evolved around the nexus of several important transport facilities such as railroads, sea ports, and trolly lines that eminated from the city's center.
-Hoyt theorized that cities would tend to grow in wedge-shaped patterns, or sectors, eminating from the CBD and centered on major transportation routes.
-It is a monocentric representation of urban areas
-He posited a CBD around which other land uses cluster
-But important factor is not distance from CBD as in the concentric zone model, but direction away from CBD
-As growth occurs, similar activities
stay in the same area and extend outwards
-The Hoyt model realized that transportation (in particular) and access to resources caused a disruption of the Burgess model.
-For example a rail line or major highway to a nearby city may result in business development to preferentially develop parallel to the rail line or major highway. So one side of a city may be completely industrial with another sector may be completely rural.

DEFINITION
-a model of the internal structure of cities in which social groups are arranged around a series of sectors, radiating from the CBD (central business district)

CBD
-the area of the city where retail and office activities are clustered
-commercial and geographic heart of the city
-ex: downtown in North America

LOW-CLASS RESIDENTIAL
-tend to be near railroad lines, and commercial establishments along the business areas
-have various transportation sources into an urban area or CBD. Some are railroads, tram lines, and seaports.
-close to industry to save commuting costs
-Lower-class people tend to work in factories more than businesses with offices
-borders manufacturing/industrial sectors (traffic, noise, and pollution makes these areas the least desirable)
-Aka- low income households

MIDDLE-CLASS RESIDENTIAL
-further away from manufacturing and industrial sectors making it more desirable than low-class residential
-connected with CBD for working middle class people to easily get to work
-the largest population in the city because the average working person can afford the housing

HIGH- CLASS RESIDENTIAL
-most expensive housing is built on the outer edge, further out from the center
-the best housing is found in a corridor extending from the downtown CBD to the outer edge of the city
-furthest away from manufacturing/ industrial sectors making the environment around high-class residential to be quiet, have less traffic, and cleaner air.

INDUSTRY
-factories tend to go along rivers, canals, rail lines, or roads
-provide the needs for the people in the city
-consists of many lower class workers so that they can pay for many of them with the smallest amount possible

EXAMPLE-Chicago
-the upper class residential sector evolved outward along the desirable Lake Michigan shoreline north of the central business district, while industry extended southward in sectors that followed railroad lines.(Wikipedia)
-Hoyt argued that the best housing in Chicago developed north from the CBD along Lake Michigan, whereas industry located along major rail lines and roads to the south, southwest, and northwest. (book)

Multiple-Nuclei Model

Definition:

* Multiple-Nuclei model is a model of urban land use in which a city grows from several independent points rather than from one central business district. Each point acts as a growth center from a particular kind of land use, such as industry, retail, or high-quality housing. As these expand, they merge to form a single urban area. The CBD is not the only generator of change.
* Some centers or nodes include:
o ports,
o universities,
o airports,
o parks,
o neighborhood business centers.

This model, unlike others, takes into account the varied factors of decentralization in the structure of the North American city.

The multiple-nuclei theory was formed based on the idea that people have greater movement due to increased car ownership. This increase of movement allows for the specialization of regional centers (eg. heavy industry, business park). A term for the specialization of regional centers would a node. There is no clear CBD in this type of model.

The distant decay theory is still applicable to this model. Land value and population density decline with distance from the central places.

Difference among Concentric, Sector and Multiple nuclei models

1. monocentric – concentric, sector model; polycentric – multiple nuclei
2. multiple nuclei more complex in term of land use zones, e.g. industrial suburbs
3. multiple nuclei allows the suburbanization, transport development, outward growth of city
4. multiple nuclei model gives the idea of land use pattern of a city only

Criticisms about the Multiple nuclei model

1) Negligence of height of buildings.
2) Non-existence of abrupt divisions between zones.
3) Each zone displays a significant degree of internal heterogeneity and not homogeneity.
4) Unawareness of inertia forces.
5) No consideration of influence of physical relief and government policy.
6) The concepts may not be totally applicable to oriental cities with different cultural, economic and political backgrounds.